2025 Passenger Rail Outlook: ‘Murphy Was an Optimist!’
That is O’Toole’s Commentary on the infamous “Murphy’s Law.” Infamous anti-passenger rail activist Randal O’Toole did not originate it but, as far as trains in the United States are concerned, he might as well have. (Personal note: The first piece I wrote for Railway Age, more than six years ago, was a rebuttal to one of Randal’s rants). The prognosis for most of America’s rail passenger service is grim today and could become even grimmer as the new Administration comes to Washington, D.C. In this article, I will look at each of the different types of passenger train service in the country and the developments that have brought each to the place where they stood as 2024 ended and we prepared either to welcome 2025, or to dread it.
Regional Systems
For this commentary, I will define “regional rail” not as the corridors operated by Amtrak, but the networks of trains surrounding cities that are operated by the local transit authorities. Some examples are Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road, New Jersey Transit, Metra in Chicagoland, and Metrolink in and around Los Angeles. These lines are still sometimes called “commuter rail” lines, even though ridership is changing and there are fewer commuters now than before the COVID-19 virus struck nearly five years ago and while weekend ridership continues to grow.
Can managers and elected officials find ways to keep the systems going without inflicting catastrophic service cuts on the riders, especially those who depend on transit to get around?
Throughout the summer of 2024, Railway Age presented my twelve-part series on the “fiscal cliff” that transit providers are facing everywhere in the nation. The money that Congress authorized as part of the COVID relief legislation kept transit, including the regional rail lines, going for the past few years, but that money is running out. Different providers, who depend largely on state funds, are in various degrees of trouble. New York and New Jersey will keep their transit going for another four or five years. I recently reported that, even with a recent relatively small infusion of state money, SEPTA in and around Philadelphia might need to raise fares and cut service drastically in the middle of the year. Other providers are facing financial woes of various severity levels, but the picture is bleak for all of them. Can managers and elected officials find ways to keep the systems going without inflicting catastrophic service cuts on the riders, especially those who depend on transit to get around? We will find out soon. This will not be a good year for new starts on regional rails, although the MBTA is still planning to start service on South Coast Rail between Boston and the destinations of New Bedford and Fall River.
Three Faces of Amtrak
If you listened to a program of presentations by the top brass at Amtrak that took place in Seattle on Dec. 3, you might think that President Roger Harris, CEO Stephen Gardner, Board Chair Anthony Coscia and other Amtrak officials were running such a robust operation that they had “Made Amtrak Great Again.” They touted recent ridership recovery since the COVID pandemic wound down, claimed record ridership for 2024 (which is legitimate), and projected that ridership would double by 2040. A dive under the surface (and not necessarily a deep one) reveals a scene that is not quite so rosy. We’ll look at Amtrak’s three components, one at a time.
National Network
When Amtrak started on May 1, 1971, its network of long-distance and corridor-length trains included only about one third of the trains that had run during April of that year. Fourteen long-distance trains survived. The network grew slightly over the years, but it has recently shrunk to its smallest size ever: only 13 trains that non-motorists and motorists alike are allowed to ride (the Auto Train only permits basic ticketing for a vehicle and driver; additional passengers must accompany them). As we reported extensively, the latest reduction took place on Nov. 10, 2024: the elimination of the part of the Silver Star route north of Washington, D.C. and its consolidation with the former Capitol Limited route between there and Chicago as the new Floridian, a train that bears little resemblance to the train of the same name from the 1970s, which served such cities as Louisville and Nashville. The main effect was to eliminate through service between the Northeast Corridor (NEC) and south of Washington, D.C.
Amtrak claims two reasons for the downgrade: its East River Tunnel Project in New York City, and the lack of double-deck long-distance Superliner equipment, which ran on the Capitol Limited. The change has eliminated one daily round trip between Penn Station and Sunnyside Yards, where the equipment is stored, but through-running between Empire Service trains to Albany and elsewhere in upstate New York could open slots for a restored Silver Star. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also negotiated a three-month reprieve for the two round trips that would have been sacrificed on account of the tunnel project.
The other is equipment. Amtrak is short of Superliners for long-distance trains, which means shorter consists, offering fewer seats and sleeping car rooms and, therefore, generating less revenue per trip. If Amtrak could step up its repair program at the shops at Beech Grove, it should be feasible to restore the Capitol Limited with its recent consist soon. Instead, Amtrak re-branded the combination of the Silver Star without the NEC portion and the Capitol Limited with Amfleet II equipment as the new Floridian, a move that indicates the railroad’s intent to make the new change permanent rather than temporary.
The existing Amtrak long-distance network could die by attrition over the next several years, unless Amtrak takes major steps now to strengthen it and make sure there will be enough equipment not only to run today’s network, but to expand it.
This sort of service cut, purportedly to save equipment, says a lot about Amtrak’s plans. Except for some relatively new Viewliner II equipment running on Eastern trains, most of the long-distance fleet: the Amfleet II cars and Superliners, are now about 40 years old. How much longer can they last? Amtrak expects to start ordering new long-distance equipment, according to a 1,000-page Request for Procurement (RFP) next year or shortly thereafter. The issues then become: Who will manufacture that equipment, and how long will it take before it starts to run on Amtrak trains? A ten-year period to order the equipment, have it built, and take delivery seems reasonable. Can the existing equipment last that long in service? That seems questionable. If it can’t and if Amtrak does not find a way to shave years off the time required for the process, then Amtrak seems to have little alternative but to cut schedules and train consists down to a network that can be operated with what Amtrak already has. That would call for the loss of many routes over time, perhaps even to the point of emulating VIA Rail in Canada, which runs very few trains outside its corridors in Ontario and Quebec, every one of them offering only two or three frequencies per week.
The existing Amtrak long-distance network could die by attrition over the next several years, unless Amtrak takes major steps now to strengthen it and make sure there will be enough equipment not only to run today’s network, but to expand it. Amtrak does not wish to expand the network and made that clear on Dec. 3. So, one very real possibility is that the long-distance network will die by attrition.
State-Supported Corridors
Amtrak currently has contractual relationships with several states around the country that support at least one daily frequency within those states or to at least one adjacent state. As I recently reported, the states have a major say concerning scheduling and operations, subject to negotiations with Amtrak and the host railroads. They also pay Amtrak for operating the service, and they can withdraw that support, which means the train will be discontinued. That happened in 2019, when Indiana stopped supporting the Hoosier State train that ran between Chicago and Indianapolis on the four days of the week that the Cardinal does not run on that route, and when Missouri cut funding for the trains between St. Louis and Kansas City, so only one round trip operated, instead of the customary two.
There are two programs that could help get some new state-supported trains onto the rails: the FRA’s Corridor Identification and Development (Corridor ID) Program and Amtrak’s Connects US plan. The former will only fund the planning stage. The latter will fund capital improvements and part of the first six years of operations but, after that time, the states are on their own to pay the entire operating costs.
I expect that at least one new route will emerge from the program: Gulf Coast Service, which will consist of two daily round trips between New Orleans and Mobile and is expected to start in 2025. The new service had strong backing from Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker and other officials, but Alabama opposed it, and I have called the ensuing proceedings before the STB and elsewhere concerning the proposed service the “Second Battle of New Orleans” because it was a fierce and long-lasting fight. If there are similar struggles over other proposed lines, especially between Amtrak and the potential host railroads, it is unclear how many proposed services will be implemented. Likely, there will be very few.
The states will have to contribute a great deal of money toward these new trains, and it is unclear how many of the states would be willing to come up with the money, especially after the sixth year, when Amtrak stops chipping in. Some states, particularly California and Illinois, support several corridors and have demonstrated that they want to keep strong passenger rail networks operating, often along with strong transit in their cities. These are mostly “blue states,” but a number of those states, including California and Illinois, are experiencing financial woes. They want trains, but the limiting factor is how many they can afford. “Red states” are generally not interested in funding passenger trains. The coming Gulf Coast Service might be the exception that proves the rule, including Alabama’s strong opposition. “Purple states” are generally not sure where they stand, and Virginia is carrying out an innovative plan to purchase tracks from CSX and Norfolk Southern in places, but it is unclear how many more trains will really run there.
On and Around the NEC
Amtrak owns most of the NEC, and that is where more Amtrak trains run than anywhere else. Amtrak’s perceived favoritism toward that line has prompted advocates from elsewhere in the country to say that “NEC” stands for “Nothing Else Counts.” However congruently their perception might match reality, there is no question of the importance of the NEC to Amtrak, in terms of the importance it holds today.
Is it time for a change for passenger rail in the Northeast?
All is not well on the NEC, though. South of Trenton, Amtrak’s home rail does not deliver a smooth ride. Amtrak is preparing to re-equip the route over the next few years, but that equipment is relatively lightweight and not “built for comfort.” There are problems on the part of the railroad north of Trenton, too. As Railway Age recently reported, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has blamed what he sees as deficiencies in Amtrak’s infrastructure (both the track and the electrical system for the catenary) for numerous delays, annulments and cancellations among the many trains on New Jersey Transit (NJT) that run between New York’s Penn Station and Trenton, or are diverted on to NJT-owned lines somewhere along the way, as well as delays on some Amtrak trains. We reported that Murphy has brought Amtrak and NJT officials together to fix the infrastructure problems, and Amtrak is conducting thorough inspections. Still, most elected officials do not intervene as Murphy did, unless their constituents complain.
Is it time for a change for passenger rail in the Northeast? That depends on politics, as all decisions regarding passenger trains and transit do. Most Northeastern states are “blue states” (Pennsylvania is a “purple state”), where Democrats are strong, although the governorships in some of those states flip between the parties over the years. Republicans will be strong at the national level for at least the next two years, though, and federal transportation policy can override some aspects of traditional state policies. If some Democrats in the Northeast and some Republicans elsewhere can agree to try a different model for managing NEC infrastructure in the region and operating trains on it, circumstances could change.
Canada
VIA Rail in Canada is looking toward the future, too, but it does not appear that big changes are in the works. The railroad has unveiled its VIAction 2030 plan, which is designed to generate savings of 15% on the company’s operating deficit, reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to 2005, and increase capacity by 18%. The company is introducing Siemens Venture cars on its corridors, which focus on Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal, and extend as far east as Quebec City and as far west as Walkerville (Windsor), Ontario. The company also plans to purchase new equipment for its longer-distance trains elsewhere in the country and increase integration with other transportation modes. The VIA website did not describe any major service expansions for 2025. On Canadian rail transit, there is construction in Montreal on the REM lines and the Blue Line subway, with some service openings expected during the next two years. There is major construction in Toronto, too. However, there could be a major setback for regional rail in the Montreal area. Exo, the agency that runs the trains, has threatened to eliminate service entirely on the lines to Mascouche, Candiac and Mont-Saint Hilaire. Service on all three lines runs almost entirely for peak-period commuters.
HSR Prospects
In the U.S., high-speed rail development appears to constitute a mixed bag. Brightline in Florida is promoting its service between Miami and Orlando International Airport, with decreased emphasis on short-distance riders going between Miami and West Palm Beach. Brightline West, which will link Las Vegas, Nevada with Southern California, including a connection on Metrolink for Los Angeles, is still slated to open for service in 2028. The California High-Speed Rail (CHSR) project is still under construction, but service is still not expected to begin for several years. Amtrak is still backing its takeover of the former Texas Central project for a high-speed rail route between Dallas and the Houston area, but it is currently unclear how long Amtrak will continue to back the project. We will find out eventually whether there will be enough funding available to build projects of that magnitude.
It appears that Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk have made shrinking the government as much as possible a major objective. That renders almost all discretionary spending vulnerable and, even worse, Musk is in the automobile business.
PESD (Post-Election Stress Disorder) Effects
Most of the information available for this article was posted before Election Day. While Republicans are generally less favorable to Amtrak and transit than Democrats, this election cycle was different. There is reason to believe that the new Administration will be more hostile than most when it comes to transit and, especially to Amtrak. There were efforts to shrink Amtrak during the new President’s previous term, but there were also more Democrats in Congress then. It appears that Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk have made shrinking the government as much as possible a major objective. That renders almost all discretionary spending vulnerable and, even worse, Musk is in the automobile business. The new President’s nominee for Secretary of Transportation, Sean Duffy, consistently voted against bills that would advance passenger trains and in favor of bills that would harm them, including proposals to eliminate all funding for Amtrak, which would result in eliminating Amtrak trains as we know them.
Whatever happens to Amtrak, at least President Biden’s picks for the Amtrak Board were approved at the last minute, so they will have whatever opportunities are presented to them to make an effort to save Amtrak and its trains.
We don’t even know how much will be left of the FRA and the FTA. Can proponents of Amtrak and transit make the “business case” convincingly enough to get sufficient Republicans to join the Democrats who are already on board? That sounds like a long shot, but anything can happen in these uncertain times.
Maybe O’Toole was an optimist, too, and I’m not talking about Randal!
