“Weather disruptions, softening industrial demand, and regulatory pressure converge to create volatile year-end operations,” according to ITS Logistics’ December 2025 Supply Chain Report.
The December report “reflects a freight market balancing peak-season headwinds with softened demand and volatile capacity,” ITS Logistics, a Nevada-based third-party logistics (3PL) firm, reported Dec. 31. “While regional trucking capacity tightened amid severe winter weather and seasonal demand, softer industrial activity, moderating warehouse utilization, and policy-driven labor uncertainty are shaping a more cautious outlook for the broader supply chain entering 2026.”
Trucking conditions tightened unevenly in November as peak-season demand coincided with severe winter weather across the Midwest, according to ITS Logistics. “Major storms disrupted freight flows and constrained available capacity in several regional markets, pushing rates higher amid typical holiday surges,” the firm noted. “The national seven-day rolling average spot rates across both the reefer and dry van markets also ticked upward moving into early December, per DAT, with reefer rates reaching the third-highest Week 50 rate ever recorded.”
Flatbed rates also rose, but only marginally, “reflecting more restrained consumer demand beneath the pressures of peak season,” according to ITS Logistics. “The flatbed market continues to face headwinds tied to tariffs, elevated borrowing costs, and delayed construction activity. Recent earnings commentary from Home Depot underscored this trend, with the retailer citing consumer hesitation around large projects and renovations.”
Evolving driver regulations also remain “a growing source of uncertainty in the domestic supply chain—extending beyond peak into 2026,” ITS Logistics reported. “A new lawsuit has been filed in response to California’s notice to cancel nearly 20,000 commercial driver’s licenses. The suit alleges a significant portion of the cancellations stem from administrative and clerical errors tied to compliance documentation, with impacted drivers having little recourse to reapply for proper licensing. The case has drawn particular attention to the impact new enforcement actions are having on Sikh drivers, who represent roughly 20% of the total U.S. driver pool, emphasizing concerns that broad regulatory changes could significantly impact capacity in the year ahead.”
At the ports, ITS Logistics said, containerized import volumes declined 5.4% month-over-month to 2,183,048 TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units). “With this continued downward trend, year-to-date volumes are now just 0.1% higher than 2024 levels—down from 10% margins at the beginning of 2025,” the firm noted. “Even so, November ranked among the stronger import months on record, underscoring a degree of resilience beneath the slowdown.”
From a macroeconomic standpoint, November data pointed to “a cooling but persistent U.S. economy,” according to ITS Logistics. “Inflation continued to ease, job growth slowed, and consumer confidence weakened, yet overall spending held steady during the early holiday period. The National Retail Federation reported that total retail sales increased marginally month-over-month in November, and full-season holiday sales are projected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting a consumer base that remains engaged but increasingly value-conscious as economic uncertainty persists.”
Separately, ITS Logistics recently released its December 2025 US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, which reported a continued “decline in import and export volumes through the fourth quarter, attributed to tariff-related frontloading and changes in sourcing strategy.”
Further Reading:
- ITS Logistics Publishes November Supply Chain Report
- ITS Logistics Issues November US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
- ITS Logistics Issues October US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
- ITS Logistics Releases September Supply Chain Report
- ITS Logistics Publishes September US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
- ITS Logistics Issues August Supply Chain Report
- ITS Logistics Releases August US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
- ITS Logistics Publishes July Supply Chain Report
- ITS Logistics Issues July US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
