TD Cowen

Panelists at our recent Railroad Roundtable projected weak demand for 2026. Tightening truckload capacity is encouraging but not impacting rates enough yet to gain confidence in rail pricing cycle. The…

“Norfolk Southern delivered another quarter of strong results on safety, service, and productivity through a dynamic freight market,” said Mark George, President and CEO of the Class I railroad, which…

Pricing continues to decelerate in the third quarter, running well below the survey’s average. Business growth expectations worsen, akin to COVID lows. Economic confidence skews negative. Shippers would move LSD…

Union Pacific’s (UP) much-anticipated bid for Norfolk Southern (NS) was announced July 29. Both now embark on a lengthy review process, but we see the potential approval pathway justified due…

Unconfirmed reports over the weekend noted a Class I merger is close. These reports were preceded by actions by the STB that show the agency is preparing to handle a…

We upgrade shares of Norfolk Southern and CSX to Buy as the likelihood of rail consolidation moves up considerably. A Union Pacific bid for NSC likely results in a BNSF…

Class I merger talk comes back to center stage as the Wall Street Journal reports Union Pacific is in early discussions with Norfolk Southern. We hosted a call with Littlejohn…

TD Cowen recently hosted a call with industry executives from the rail equipment market. From that, we heard order books are seeing no notable growth, attributable to tariff uncertainty, and…

Pricing expectations stalled in second-quarter 2025 and remain below our rail shipper survey’s long-term average. Business growth fell modestly sequentially to levels not seen since COVID. Economic confidence improved marginally,…

Without volume and market share growth, the Class I’s may be at risk—or be forced to look at merging. Investors continue to await the next leg of Class I railroad…

Investors await the next leg of Class I rail earnings growth as the PSR story moves toward the rear-view mirror. This report explores the factors at play that can drive…

We attended the NEARS (Northeast Association of Rail Shippers) City Series event in New York City and hosted a call with a Farrukh Bezar, Chair of STG Logistics. Following are…

We adjust our models ahead of a first quarter that came with severe weather, pull forward, and growing macro uncertainties that could limit upside over the near term. We broadly…

Rate hike expectations fell 20bps sequentially, trending below the survey’s LT average. Business growth fell sharply to levels not seen since COVID. Economic confidence fell back to pre-election levels as…

Equipment industry panelists expect muted 2025 railcar demand amid elevated interest rates and trade uncertainty affecting carloads as well as input prices. Disruptions are likely to benefit secondary market valuations.…

Rate hike expectations +30bps sequentially, though still below survey average. Biz growth & confidence stepped up significantly in first survey post-election. 26% of shippers have pulled freight in anticipation of…

The President-elect has expressed his intent to nominate David Armstrong Fink, former President of Pan Am Railways and the son of David Andrew Fink, who served as President of Guilford…

We hosted a call with Farrukh Bezar, Chairman of the Board at STG Logistics, the fourth-largest asset-based intermodal marketing company (IMC), on the state of the rail network, intermodal into…

At the latest “Railroad Happy Hour” event at TD Cowen, leaders in the railroad market pointed to noteworthy signs of optimism looking into next year as industrial projects take stronger footing.…

CSX delivered “meaningful growth in volume, operating income, and operating margin in the third quarter,” President and CEO Joe Hinrichs said of his Class I railroad, the first to report…