The STB is required by law to publish the RCAF on at least a quarterly basis. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) each quarter computes three types of RCAF figures and submits them for STB approval:
- Unadjusted RCAF: “an index reflecting cost changes experienced by the railroad industry, without reference to changes in rail productivity.”
- Adjusted RCAF: “an index that reflects national average productivity changes as originally developed and applied by the ICC [Interstate Commerce Commission; the STB’s predecessor], the calculation of which is currently based on a five-year moving average.” According to the STB, the five-year moving geometric average of productivity change for U.S. Class I railroads from 2019-2023 is 1.014 (1.4% per year).
- RCAF-5: “an index that also reflects national average productivity changes; however, those productivity changes are calculated as if a five-year moving average had been applied consistently from the productivity adjustment’s inception in 1989.” According to the STB, the RCAF-5 for fourth-quarter 2025 uses a productivity trend for the years 2018-2022, which is 1.011 (1.1% per year).
The STB in a Sept. 12 decision (scroll down to download), reported that it has reviewed AAR’s submission and adopted the RCAF figures for fourth-quarter 2025: unadjusted RCAF, 0.966 (up 0.6% from third-quarter 2025’s 9.60); adjusted RCAF, 0.372 (up 0.3% from third-quarter 2025’s 0.371); and RCAF-5, 0.352 (up 0.3% from third-quarter 2025’s 0.351).
Table A shows the index of railroad input costs, unadjusted RCAF, adjusted RCAF, and RCAF-5 for third-quarter and fourth-quarter 2025:
Table B shows the second-quarter 2025 index and the RCAF calculated on both an actual and forecasted basis (the difference between the actual calculation and the forecasted calculation is the forecast error adjustment):
