The STB is required by law to publish the RCAF on at least a quarterly basis. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) each quarter computes three types of RCAF figures and submits them for STB approval:
- Unadjusted RCAF: “an index reflecting cost changes experienced by the railroad industry, without reference to changes in rail productivity.”
- Adjusted RCAF: “an index that reflects national average productivity changes as originally developed and applied by the ICC [Interstate Commerce Commission; the STB’s predecessor], the calculation of which is currently based on a five-year moving average.” According to the STB, the five-year moving geometric average of productivity change for U.S. Class I railroads from 2019-2023 is 1.014 (1.4% per year).
- RCAF-5: “an index that also reflects national average productivity changes; however, those productivity changes are calculated as if a five-year moving average had been applied consistently from the productivity adjustment’s inception in 1989.” According to the STB, the RCAF-5 for first-quarter 2026 uses a productivity trend for the years 2019-2023, which is 1.014 (1.4% per year).
The STB, in its Dec. 18 decision (scroll down to download), reported that it has reviewed AAR’s submission and adopted the RCAF figures for first-quarter 2026: unadjusted RCAF, 1.015 (up 5.1 % from fourth-quarter 2025’s 0.966); adjusted RCAF, 0.389 (up 4.6% from fourth-quarter 2025’s 0.372); and RCAF-5, 0.369 (up 4.8% from second-quarter 2025’s 0.352).
Table A shows the index of railroad input prices, unadjusted RCAF, adjusted RCAF, and RCAF-5 for first-quarter 2026 and fourth-quarter 2025:
Table B shows the third-quarter 2025 index and the RCAF calculated on both an actual and forecasted basis (the difference between the actual calculation and the forecasted calculation is the forecast error adjustment):
