Since a Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger is now in process, I wanted to share data giving a sense of the absolute monster of a railroad UP+NS would represent.
To do this, below I’ve taken 2024 originated and received carload data by commodity (obtained at https://lnkd.in/gfM4niKH) for 2024 for the six Class I railroads in the U.S. I combined Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern together as CPKC. I’ve sorted in descending order by total units by commodity and then highlighted in pink commodities where UP+NS has a modest market share advantage, and then blue where UP+NS has a much larger market share. For example, UP+NS substantially eclipses BNSF for intermodal containers, accounting for 46% market share, whereas BNSF has 30%
UP+NS is an absolute monster for Chemicals with 49% market share, with CSX coming in next at just 18%. Likewise, UP+NS dominates Motor Vehicles & Equipment—47% market share, with CSX next at 23%. The same story of market share dominance applies to Crushed Stone, Sand & Gravel; Grain Mill Products; Food & Kindred Products; Metals; Clay, Stone & Glass Products, etc.
Overall, UP+NS would hold 43% market share, with BNSF a distant second at just 27%.
Implication: A UP+NS merger would create an absolutely massive Class I railroad with the largest market share in most commodity categories. I can’t help but think this would create pressure for BNSF Railway and CSX to explore a merger possibility, as this would create an entity on par with UP+NS in terms of sheer size. I’ll be curious what STB and especially shippers have to say about such a possibility.
