IANA: ‘Tariff Deadlines’ Drove Up 1Q25 Intermodal Traffic
“The U.S. economy entered a unique period of uncertainty and volatility in the first quarter,” according to the Intermodal Quarterly report, released May 1 (download below). “Imports continued to flood into the country to avoid the tariff start dates, upsetting the trade balance in the process. In addition, early indicators pointed to a potential slowdown in consumer activity. On the other hand, first quarter job gains outpaced the prior four, the unemployment rate stayed historically low, and the core components of the economy remained in good standing.”
According to the report, all but one of the seven highest-density trade corridors, which collectively handled more than 60% of total volume, were up in first-quarter 2025. The Midwest-Northwest was up 28.0% and the Midwest-Southwest was up 13.4% from first-quarter 2024. The Intra-Southeast and the South Central-Southwest climbed 10.7% and 10.5%, respectively. The Trans-Canada and Southeast-Southwest increased 8.0% and 5.4%, respectively. The Northeast-Midwest was down 4.5% from the prior-year period.
Total IMC volume dropped 6.0% year-over-year, with highway traffic down 15.2% and intermodal loads in positive territory by 0.7%.
“Tariff deadlines drove intermodal results in the first quarter,” IANA President and CEO Anne Reinke said. “Growth is far less certain going forward, however, as the effects of trade policies, including higher costs, lower sales, and reduced competitiveness, start to be felt.”
The Intermodal Quarterly report provided this outlook for 2025:
“U.S. economic growth is expected to remain in positive territory in 2025, between 1.3% and 1.8%, but the possibility of a slowdown resulting from new protectionist trade policies is also real. Given concerns surrounding inflation, the Fed may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer than originally expected, which could weigh on business investment, industrial activity and real estate. Although the labor market is predicted to remain supportive of some consumer spending growth, households will likely cut back on discretionary spending in favor of essentials.
“The first quarter surge in imports undoubtedly helped results across North America, but the potential for a downturn seems inevitable given the current trade landscape. With that in mind, international intermodal is expected to fall 1.0% in 2025 due to the expiration of tariff exemptions and delays in the second half of the year. Domestic container traffic, on the other hand, is forecasted to increase 1.0%, in line with its recent growth trend. This would offset accelerated declines among trailers which are now projected to end the year 18.5% to the negative.
“Overall, the intermodal network is projected to contract 0.6% in 2025 on the heels of an 8.5% gain in 2024. Of course, the tariffs underpinning this picture could disappear just as quickly as they appeared, given their use as a bargaining tactic with most countries. If that happens, expectations could shift upward in the coming months.”
