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Posts by Matt Elkott, Jason Seidl, Bhairav Manawat and Elliot Alper

Matt Elkott, Jason Seidl, Bhairav Manawat and Elliot Alper

Commentary

TD Cowen 1Q24 Rail Equipment Survey Says …

Our 1Q24 survey results are neutral to mildly positive for railcar demand. The order outlook was mixed, but a lower percent of shippers not ordering cited “no need” in 1Q24…
Commentary

Rail Equipment Expert Panel Takeaways

Railcar manufacturing inquiries and orders appear to have moderated, but the 2024 build outlook remains stable, modestly above replacement demand. Lease rates are holding up well at elevated levels. While…

TD Cowen: 1Q23 Surveys Say …

The results of our 1Q23 Rail and Equipment Surveys indicate a slight decrease in business growth expectations, and some resilience in railcar demand.
(Photograph Courtesy of CP)
Commentary

Cowen: ‘Looking Down the Windy Tracks’

A strike has been averted for now as the major unions reached tentative agreements. Contracts details are expected to be in line with the Presidential Emergency Board recommendations. The railroads…
Commentary

NEARS 2022 Conference: Day One Takeaways

At the NEARS (North East Association of Rail Shippers) Fall 2022 Conference, participants say they are still waiting to see consistency in rail service. Technical metrics are gradually improving, but…

Cowen Global Transportation and Sustainability Conference: Key Takeaways

Peak season visibility is murky, as some cracks emerge in the macro. Improving rail service offers some respite as volumes tick upward. Rail pricing continues to come above cost pressures.…
Commentary

Counting on Rail Congestion as a Rail Equipment Demand Driver is Not a Sustainable Long-Term Strategy

Our July 12 rail equipment expert call takeaways are consistent with J.B. Hunt Transport’s (JBHT) recent comments on about sub-optimal 2Q22 rail service (below). This solidifies our expectation of an…
According to the Cowen and Company Rail Equipment Survey for 2Q22, it appears that hoppers and gondolas saw demand improvement relative to 1Q22. Containers and centerbeams declined relative to 1Q22.
Commentary

Cowen: 2Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

According to Cowen and Company’s recently conducted second-quarter 2022 Rail Equipment and Rail Shipper Surveys, the outlook for railcar orders is positive, and rail shipping rates will continue to increase.…
Commentary

Cowen: Adjusting the Tracks for 2Q22

At Cowen and Company, we are adjusting our railroad estimates ahead of second-quarter 2022 earnings. Continued rail congestion is hindering volume (still below 2019 levels), while pricing is expected to…
Commentary

Cowen State of the Ports Conference Call: ‘Railroads the Largest Coming Bottleneck’

Widely reported excess freight from China due to shutdowns appears over-hyped, and a potential upcoming backlog (which is expected to arrive in the last week of June) is likely from…
Commentary

Greenbrier: Order Activity Remains Healthy

We hosted virtual investor meetings and a group call with Justin Roberts, Greenbrier’s Vice President Corporate Finance and Treasurer. North American demand remains solid, and the production ramp-up appears set…
Commentary

Suds With Seidl: ‘Rail Service Severely Challenged’

We hosted another Suds with Seidl event featuring leaders across the railroad industry. Rail service continues to be severely challenged, although there have been some slight improvements in recent weeks.…
Commentary

Cowen Insight: 1Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

Cowen and Company transportation analysts Jason Seidl (Managing Director and Railway Age Wall Street Contributing Editor), Matt Elkott and Elliott Alper recently conducted their first-quarter 2022 rail equipment and shipper…
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