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Posts by Jason Seidl, Elliot Alper and Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen

Jason Seidl, Elliot Alper and Uday Khanapurkar, TD Cowen

Commentary

TD Cowen: Still Searching for Positives in Near-Term

At TD Cowen, we are lowering our rail estimates ahead of third-quarter earnings reports to reflect a very challenged environment. Leaders in the rail and logistics market who attended our…
Commentary

TD Cowen: Day 1 Transport Conference Takeaways

We hosted freight industry “fireside chats” and presentations on Day 1 of the TD Cowen 16th Annual Global Transportation Conference, being held Sept. 6-7 in Boston. While we heard that…

TD Cowen: 2Q23 Surveys Say …

Railcar demand showed some resilience against a tough macro backdrop, although we view the results of our Second Quarter 2023 Rail Equipment Survey as a slight incremental negative, similar to…
Commentary

Why We’re Skeptical of a 2H Rebound

Rail volumes have not seen a rebound in 2Q. Intermodal contract rates are down notably and are likely to pressure the group, though sequential volume improvements on the West Coast…
Commentary

Oberman: STB Remains Actively Involved in Rail Reg Mods

We hosted a June 15 call with Marty Oberman, Chairman of the Surface Transportation Board, on Thursday. We see a reciprocal switching ruling well before year-end, and a bottleneck ruling…
Commentary

‘Railroad Happy Hour’ Report: Volumes Falling Short, Service Improving

At TD Cowen’s latest “Railroad Happy Hour,” leaders in the rail and logistics market said they continue to face a soft volume environment, though service improvements are a step in…
Commentary

TD Cowen: NEARS Conference Key Takeaways

We attended the NEARS (Northeast Association of Rail Shippers) Conference, where shippers discussed the current state of the rail industry. Rail service and safety was center stage, with panelist consensus…
Commentary

TD Cowen Insight: Freight Traffic, Railcars, Trade Tensions

Carloadings fell short of our expectations as a slow start to ‘23 volumes took hold in Q1 despite easy comps. Intermodal continues to pressure the group, given loose capacity and…
Within the 49% of total shippers who are contemplating railcar orders in the next 12 months, 58% said “yes,” they plan to place orders, versus 54% in third-quarter 2022, and 42% said “maybe,” compared with 46% in third-quarter 2022. This could mean an increased level of certainty about ordering within the total shipper group relative to last quarter. Box and tank cars saw demand improvement relative to third-quarter 2022. Hoppers, gondolas and centerbeams declined relative to third-quarter 2022.
Commentary

Cowen Insight: 4Q22 Shipper Surveys Say …

According to Cowen and Company’s recently conducted fourth-quarter 2022 Rail Equipment and Rail Shipper surveys, the demand for railcars remains strong, and rail-shipping pricing expectations ticked up sequentially. Details follow,…
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