We hosted a call with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka. Import trends are expected to be healthy in January and February, but a slowdown is expected post-Lunar…

Eastern railroad volumes finished 2025 weaker than expected, and we have lowered 4Q25 estimates. We remain below consensus on Union Pacific, and lower 2026 EPS estimates below consensus for all…

Panelists at our recent Railroad Roundtable projected weak demand for 2026. Tightening truckload capacity is encouraging but not impacting rates enough yet to gain confidence in rail pricing cycle. The…

We hosted a former Class I CEO to review the recent Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application. He sees a very strong filing with acceptance likely though not until 2027. The…

Union Pacific updated investors Dec. 2 that its Surface Transportation Board filing to acquire Norfolk Southern will be pushed out two weeks due to “additional analysis from a contractor.” UP…

Pricing continues to decelerate in the third quarter, running well below the survey’s average. Business growth expectations worsen, akin to COVID lows. Economic confidence skews negative. Shippers would move LSD…

We lower Q3 EPS estimates below current consensus for both Eastern carriers, while modestly raising estimates for UNP, driven by outperformance in IM and coal. Broader freight demand remains challenged…

While consolidation sentiment varied at the NEARS conference, there was a belief that the deal would get done. Comments on the economic backdrop were not positive, varying from sub-seasonal to…

We believe a unified Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern sees potential upside to disclosed revenue synergies as we quantify the watershed opportunity. Our analysis of more than 4,000 watershed O-D…

We hosted a call with a former Class I CEO on the implications of a transcontinental merger. Our panelist believes the merger will enable significant share gains over the long…

We hosted a call with rail industry participants on an update on rail service, end markets, and thoughts on a transcon merger. Tariffs are having a meaningful effect on import/export…

Berkshire Hathaway does not intend to purchase CSX, a move we thought was the likely outcome given the competitive offering of an East/West combination. The valuation and merger benefits are…

Union Pacific’s (UP) much-anticipated bid for Norfolk Southern (NS) was announced July 29. Both now embark on a lengthy review process, but we see the potential approval pathway justified due…

Unconfirmed reports over the weekend noted a Class I merger is close. These reports were preceded by actions by the STB that show the agency is preparing to handle a…

We upgrade shares of Norfolk Southern and CSX to Buy as the likelihood of rail consolidation moves up considerably. A Union Pacific bid for NSC likely results in a BNSF…

Class I merger talk comes back to center stage as the Wall Street Journal reports Union Pacific is in early discussions with Norfolk Southern. We hosted a call with Littlejohn…

TD Cowen recently hosted a call with industry executives from the rail equipment market. From that, we heard order books are seeing no notable growth, attributable to tariff uncertainty, and…

Pricing expectations stalled in second-quarter 2025 and remain below our rail shipper survey’s long-term average. Business growth fell modestly sequentially to levels not seen since COVID. Economic confidence improved marginally,…

We hosted a call with former Surface Transportation Board Chair Daniel R. Elliott III to discuss rail M&A. An East-West consolidation remains an uphill battle—he gave it a 20%-25% chance—and…

Investors await the next leg of Class I rail earnings growth as the PSR story moves toward the rear-view mirror. This report explores the factors at play that can drive…